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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd