A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
